‘Average’ property prices? Really?

Scroll through the content in this Geofutures Mapcase to see why there’s no such thing as average property prices.

The text area on the left has its own scroll bar if you need it. The left/right arrows allow you to drill deeper into each information section, where multiple graphics or comments can be presented.

As with every analysis of spatial data, there are some statistical caveats. Land Registry data is only available for properties which actually sell during the time period in question, so there’s a degree of interpolation used – providing values for locations where there is no data based in the nearest available data.

This works most reliably where we have the greatest volume of data, and it’s notable that our most extreme contrasts show up in more rural areas where the volume of properties is lower.

In rural areas, a unit postcode (the full postcode, which is shared on average between 15 address points) will encompass a larger geographic area, and properties will also tend to be less homogenous in size and type compared to their neighbours than in towns and cities.

Even allowing for this, the evidence shows that over the course of the recession, the residential property value performance of a neighbourhood was radically different to areas within a bicycle ride’s distance. Market drivers like accessibility, local employment and the built estate will underpin many of these variations, with the a long and deep recession influencing the behaviour of buyers and sellers.

The point is, this is less the precursor to a national property bubble than a frothing cauldron of change.

A note on methodology: this map uses Land Registry residential sales data for properties which had sales in both 2007 and 2013 and mapped the absolute change by postcode points. Records which had a change to the property ‘type’ field were removed to allow potential physical changes to the property reflected in the price. This left a sample of 48,721 properties to map across England and Wales, which is an 8.3% sample of sales records in 2007 and a 10.7% sample of sales records in 2013.

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