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Spot hard data pattern, add soft knowledge

February 2nd, 2012 by admin

All the development work we’re currently doing is designed to allow users to share data and map visualisations with colleagues and stakeholders. We’re automating that process by which you call someone over to look at something on your screen – together with the process of gathering the comments they make. A hotspot (or coolspot) on a map often prompts someone with local knowledge to say, “Oh, I know that road, it’s different from the next street because…”

This qualitative knowledge makes sense of the quantitative evidence and often contains the insights you need to make a decision based on the findings. The more people you involve, the more reliable the consensus findings become.

Here’s an example of a visually distinct correlation between two datasets for Great Manchester which needs some local qualitative knowledge. We were thinking about this week’s debate over the status of some qualifications being downgraded in school league tables, and whether employment data could indicate any relationship between school attainment and the value delivered back to the surrounding community.

In an exploratory way, we looked at data for the city for residents with level 4 qualifications and above (level 4 is one higher than A levels, e.g. diplomas, professional certificates, on up to HNDs, degrees, masters and so on). Almost accidentally, we compared this city-scale data pattern with residents employed in manufacturing. The two maps are below:

Percent residents with level 4 qualifications & above (darkest shades = 30%+)

Percent residents employed in manufacturing (darkest shades 20%+)

If we image a slice of pie extending south from the centre of the city, the lack of manufacturing employment and the relatively high level of qualification is visually evident (and yes, Moss Side is a blob in the middle of the pie slice – but the inverse relationship between the two phenomena seems consistent even here). The tools we’re building allow you to add markers and annotations to illustrate something exactly like this, but we’ll have to make do with pie for now.

So does manufacturing still offer relatively high levels of employment to those workers with qualifications below level 4, as we might have expected 30 years ago perhaps? Or is it more significant that higher-qualified people are disproportionately likely to live south of the centre and be employed in the service sector?

With more and better data, could we test the hypothesis that qualifications relevant to manufacturing and other local employers would add even greater value to the community than traditional academic exams – perhaps in the shape of a reduced benefits budget and related regeneration effects?

The truthful answer here and now is that I don’t know, but I bet among the residents of Manchester and equivalent cities the ‘soft’ knowledge exists to make perfect sense of these patterns, once we know they’re there, and to shape policy accordingly.

Any insight to share? Let us know below. Meanwhile it’s back to the coding coalface…

Gimme the evidence! Don’t commission an evidence base till you know these five things.

January 25th, 2012 by admin

1 – If your organisation needs one
‘Evidence’ is a buzzword that’s in danger of being over-used, but if an organisation needs to make a decision, it should do so based on some reliable information. This helps it to make decisions which bear some relation to the real world so you can make more money, save more time, help more people, or whatever you’re aiming to do. It also helps it justify those decisions to the employees, shareholders, competitors or trade press who might question a new turn of strategy. An evidence base is a structured arrangement of data designed to support decision-making. So yes, you probably need one.
2 – You may have one already (of sorts)
Whether it’s about customers, markets, demographics, buying influences, relationships or the economy, it’s likely your organisation has access to some potentially useful data. Does this qualify you to claim you make ‘evidence-based decisions’? Do [...] Continue Reading…

Geofutures gambling research wins headlines

November 23rd, 2011 by admin

November 2011: We’re delighted to see the publication of Geofutures’ research for the Responsible Gambling Fund, in collaboration with the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen).

The results were featured in the Observer this weekend (though sadly our namecheck hit the cutting room floor – an error we have asked them to correct).

The study found that areas of Great Britain with the highest densities of gambling machines were on average poorer than the rest of the country, with higher levels of economic inactivity, low-status occupations and both the youngest and oldest sections of the adult population.

Geofutures mapped zones surrounding all venues licensed to offer gambling machines, weighted them according to industry information on the number of machines per venue, and then used a statistical distribution to define what constitutes ‘high’ density – more than 1 machine per hectare. The results were then used to characterise the highest density zones according [...] Continue Reading…

Greetings map fans everywhere…

October 17th, 2011 by admin

You’d expect sustainability professionals to be a bit spatially aware, but it was still good to know how many delegates at the Environmental Trade Show couldn’t resist a map.

And who won the Mystery Map competition? Find out here.

It’s what makes us at Geofutures tick, of course: the fact that presenting information visually on a map makes it totally accessible. It works with the way our minds work.

And so we had great times discussing mapping with all kinds of interesting people – and it started some interesting thoughts flowing about the kinds of data people need and the forms they need it in. More on that soon.

Have you got the insight?

October 12th, 2011 by admin

Here’s our Mystery Map as featured at the Environmental Trade Show, UWE, on 13 October 2011.

The map illustrates a unique index relevant to long-term sustainability, created by Geofutures by processing selected published data. We asked delegates to guess what they thought the index was.

And the answer is… it’s a measure of economic diversity. Taking inspiration from E H Simpson’s method for measuring biodiversity, first published in Nature in 1949 and used to assess ecosystem diversity ever since, our measure takes data from the Annual Business Inquiry and applies the same approach.

Dark areas therefore have a greater diversity of industry type than the lighter ones. You’d expect that in the larger towns and cities, but interesting peaks emerge which certainly had our conference-goers chewing their pencils.

Larger dark areas around the Salisbury Plain area may point to diversity of employment type which is all ultimately linked to military activity; the M4 [...] Continue Reading…

Visit us at the Environmental Trade Show

October 10th, 2011 by admin

We’re looking forward to joining over 100 organisations exhibiting at the Environmental Trade Show on Thursday 13 October 2011. It’s free to visitors so if you’re in the Bristol area on Thursday (10am to 5pm), come to the UWE Exhibition and Conference Centre and come and see what we’re doing on stand F23.

The event is design to showcase the most up to date technologies, new approaches and collaborations, promote equipment and services and introduce companies committed to low carbon commerce (more details here). Geofutures MD Mark Thurstain-Goodwin is also speaking in a symposium session discussing fresh perspectives on energy efficiency, together with Dave Covell, principal at ENVIRON.

See you there!

Shopping for regeneration

September 12th, 2011 by admin

UK retail guru Mary Portas is contributing to a government-backed review of High Street decline; she’s also doing a good job of keeping the debate in the news and accessible to people who aren’t town centres experts but are town-centre users. And that’s most of us.

Commenting on the latest release of shop vacancy figures from our old friends at the Local Data Company, she suggested that “the horse has bolted” from some towns – she simply cannot see a retail future for them. The Local Data Company evidence suggests these are mainly second-tier centres, and it’s the second-tier off-prime locations within them which are hardest hit.

The conclusion Mary Portas suggests is that some towns need to rethink the model entirely. If they cannot compete as retail centres, their only hope for rejuvenation is other uses. So far, where this has happened it has tended to be leisure-led, hence closed [...] Continue Reading…

The bare necessities

May 23rd, 2011 by admin

What do we really need? In a future where extreme weather is more common and fossil fuels are no longer plentiful, what are the top five things we take for granted which are truly necessities? Which shortages would threaten life as we know it?

Whether idly over a beer, or more seriously as part of GIS sustainability modelling, it’s a question I’ve been mulling over. It’s also something I’ve been discussing with my daughters, aged 10 and 7. What are the most important things for a safe and comfortable life? “TV!” they laugh, knowing it will wind me up. “Zhu Zhu Pets!” (I know, I didn’t know either, but sadly I do now).

Then the other night, the water company had to fix a leaking main up our street. By chance I was outdoors and heard their muffled attempt at letting us know via a loudhailer. Five minutes’ notice, they said, [...] Continue Reading…

Full circle

May 5th, 2011 by admin

May 2011: It’s been a busy few months for us at Geofutures, aiming to bring together some great bits of technology and some forward-thinking business partners.

And yes, working with corporate clients means there are fewer hours in the day to do things like our own sustainability research or write a blog, but in the end these things all connect.

I’ve long argued to anyone who’ll listen that adapting the established economy is at the very centre of achieving sustainability. Only by going mainstream and involving major companies will the important work of environmental researchers and campaigners have impact at the scale necessary to make a difference.

Ten years ago I helped develop an index of economic diversity for a government client. Taking inspiration from natural systems, it worked on the basis that a resilient economic system had greater diversity and hence ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

So it’s good to see [...] Continue Reading…

Unmasking the villain

February 10th, 2011 by admin

We need tools to overcome the confinement of the consultant’s report

We’re doing some fairly hard-core product development at the moment, and when the results hit the beta release stage we’ll have the details here. As the process continues, it’s interesting how every conversation we have with clients, would-be clients and partner suppliers seems to point to the same needs.

The core issue is how clients and consultants can work together in a way which maximises the value of the undoubted expertise of the consultant, and which enables the client to do something practical with the outcomes.

The villain of the piece? It’s the consultant’s report. Hours and hours of work collecting information, hours and hours more beautifully summarising and recommending, then whump! it lands on a few desks.

Then what? Who has time to read it properly? Who has the knowledge to draw relevant conclusions? How does the client implement recommendations?

If input [...] Continue Reading…

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