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Full circle

Thursday, May 5th, 2011

May 2011: It’s been a busy few months for us at Geofutures, aiming to bring together some great bits of technology and some forward-thinking business partners.

And yes, working with corporate clients means there are fewer hours in the day to do things like our own sustainability research or write a blog, but in the end these things all connect.

I’ve long argued to anyone who’ll listen that adapting the established economy is at the very centre of achieving sustainability. Only by going mainstream and involving major companies will the important work of environmental researchers and campaigners have impact at the scale necessary to make a difference.

Ten years ago I helped develop an index of economic diversity for a government client. Taking inspiration from natural systems, it worked on the basis that a resilient economic system had greater diversity and hence ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

So it’s good to see that the Ellen MacArthur Foundation has adopted similar thinking into their education aims. Sailing around the world alone is an extreme way of realising how we have to live within finite resources, but now Ellen MacArthur’s journey is all about bringing businesses and educators together to design an economy which treats waste as inputs and diversity as strength.

I like the neatness of the term the Foundation is using for this: the circular economy. Again mimicking natural systems, it suggests that intelligent upfront planning and design can ensure all waste products are treated as inputs to something else, and that ‘technical nutrients’ don’t enter the biosphere but are recycled or better still re-engineered.

There is no disconnect. Major corporates want to ensure their long-term existence as much as anyone, and some will act sooner rather than later. Third-sector organisations will benefit, and will circulate their knowledge and expertise back again. Natural systems will influence our thinking and help to bring us full circle.

Mark Thurstain-Goodwin

See the Ellen MacArthur Foundation website

Gambling research checks the odds

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

November 2010: We’re delighted to be commencing work with The Responsible Gambling Fund and Responsible Gambling Strategy Board, together with social research experts NatCen, into the distribution of gambling machines in Great Britain.

The socio-economic characteristics of the locations with highest gambling machine densities will be correlated and analysed as part of this work, helping to lay a robust data foundation for future research into problem gambling, vulnerable gamblers and possible causal factors.

The Responsible Gambling Fund (RGF) is a charity funding relief for those in need as a result of gambling and promoting education, treatment and research. As part of its objective to use the best available evidence from the widest possible sources with regard to prevention, treatment and research in problem gambling and its causes, RGF regularly commissions high quality research on problem gambling and the risk of harm from gambling.

NatCen, the National Centre for Social Research, is Britain’s leading independent social research institute. Having carried out the British Gambling Prevalence Survey, NatCen has undertaken a number of follow-up research studies into the social and financial context of problem gamblers. Their specialists will guide data specification, spatial analysis assumptions and modelling results interpretation in this research.

Geofutures and NatCen share an academic pedigree, and both organisations are committed to putting socially valuable insight into the public domain. Using spatial data analysis to relate areas of highest gambling machine density to the neighbourhoods is an ideal use of our technology and methods, and we look forward to the outcomes of this important study.

See RGF’s press release

More about NatCen

New projects: heat demand mapping

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Logo of Regen SW, the south west renewable energy agency

An exciting new project is underway for Geofutures: working with the Centre for Sustainable Energy, we’re modelling and mapping residential heat demand for Regen SW, the renewable energy agency for the south-west of England.

The aim is region-wide insight into the potential for renewable and low-carbon heat generation and distribution, with outputs at sufficiently fine scales to allow users to identify individual buildings and groups of buildings which could benefit from heat distribution installations.

It’s set to be the most advanced heat mapping exercise undertaken in the UK to date, building on CSE’s proven expertise in modelling heat demand in London, Bristol and West Sussex, with the addition of Geofutures’ experience in using GIS to analyse fine-resolution data, as well as simply visualising results.

An important benefit of starting with data at building level is the ability to aggregate results upwards without losing accuracy, still maintaining the ability to drill down to fine scales at chosen locations. Other studies have started with data generalised for hundreds of addresses, which can only output heat demand results for broad areas. For local heat distribution to become a reality, we need data for highly localised decision making.

See the website of the Centre for Sustainable Energy.

Town Centre Intelligence stocks more shop vacancy insight

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Our friends at The Local Data Company have been busy analysing the data in Town Centre Intelligence (TCI), the all-singing all-dancing urban information tool we helped them develop.

As shops close around the UK, The Local Data Company keeps track with Town Centre Intelligence, built by GeofuturesYou couldn’t move for stories about retail vacancies derived from TCI data last week, and no wonder – our high streets have a gap-toothed look about them just now, and the information from TCI is really too good to ignore. See how the BBC covered the story here.

TCI allows easy (and statistically robust) comparisons between town centres – defined consistently across Great Britain by the government boundaries defined by a Geofutures methodology.

This reveals significant regional variations in the vacancy rate – southern towns and cities are still faring much better than their northern counterparts, where vacancy rates have doubled since mid-2008, while Wales and the West are performing better than average with only a 25% increase in the same period.

A similar pattern was revealed when LDC researched what has happened to empty Woolworths premises. About 70% of all the stores are still empty, but within this national picture, fewer than 50% of Greater London Woolworths premises have not been re-let, while 90% of those in north-east England are still vacant.

Of those Woolworths stores which have been re-let or are in negotiation, LDC found 30% becoming supermarkets and 42% opening as discount stores including 99p Stores, Poundland and Bargain Madness – an interesting trend which will have long-lasting impact on the profile of town centre street scapes.

We’re continuing to work with The Local Data Company to mine more insight from the data. A special area of interest is the difference in performance between traditional high streets and shopping centres, where trends like the tide of discount stores in lower-rent locations may prove to be highly relevant. We’ll have an update soon.

Hotspots leave a warm glow

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Mark Thurstain-Goodwin enjoys seeing Ipsos MORI put spatial data in front of local authorities

It’s nice to have your career choice reaffirmed from time to time. I did feel a bit of that special warm glow this month at a great event organised by our clients Ipsos MORI to launch their National Indicators Mapping Application (NIMA), developed by Geofutures.

What set me glowing? Being reminded that a picture is worth a thousand words (the bumper-sticker of GIS professionals everywhere). In fact it was two pictures, so maybe that’s two thousand words. Here they are:

Twin images of perception data in North London from Ipsos MORI's NIMA app show strong correlation

Twin images of perception data in North London from Ipsos MORI's NIMA app show strong correlation

The audience, a who’s who of local authority research heads and their suppliers, got a whistle-stop tour of all Ipsos MORI’s work in this important market, and NIMA was centre stage. All authorities now have to poll their electors on 198 National Indicators of satisfaction and the factors affecting it, and NIMA provides instant online insight into the results. Side-by-side ‘double view’ comparisons of maps like these are a key part of the application.

What these two visualisations show are three key reasons why mapping these kinds of data is such a compellingly good idea: the correlation of the two hotspots, the fact that both are visible despite the ward boundaries, and the geographical context that the map offers.

So firstly, the two maps describe responses to two different survey questions: overall satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the area as a place to live on the left, and perception of social cohesion on the right. Only by locating these respondents on the map in a statistically smoothed data landscape can we so immediately see the close spatial correlation of the low-perception hotspots. For a local authority looking for ways to focus resources in hotspots of this kind, to deal with specific issues where they are being experienced and to maximise policy effectiveness, the benefits are obvious.

And if your local authority is only offering National Indicator results by ward, IMHO you want to be asking how efficiently they are spending your council tax. If the same results had been aggregated by ward, the hotspots would disappear altogether. It certainly wouldn’t be evident that dissatisfaction and issues of social cohesion were concentrated in one area which impacts sections of four separate wards. Tying data to actual location, rather than some arbitrary zonal boundary, is a key benefit of GIS analysis. Cue warm glow.

And a map does another simple but fundamental thing: it shows what’s on the ground in the hotspot locations. These two hotspots have a major roads running through them. Does this mean we’re looking at a pocket of high-density roadside dwellings choked with exhaust fumes, whose residents are struggling with low incomes, transient neighbours and the social issues that go with them? The sort of neighbourhood where local authorities really need to send their outreach workers?

Intriguingly, no. Zoom into an aerial image of Hendon Wood Lane and you’ll find leafy open spaces, substantial detached houses, gardens and even a smattering of swimming pools. This is where the hotspots of community dissatisfaction and perception of poor social cohesion are undoubtedly to be found, but not I suspect because of social deprivation.

Again, a map visualisation proves its worth, hinting at a fascinating little area for further exploration.

Retail vacancies soar, TCI reveals

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Town Centre Intelligence (TCI), the new urban data management tool we developed for The Local Data Company, reveals that UK retail vacancy rates rose from 4% to 12% in the 6 months to March.

We were chuffed to see that the Financial Times used this information as a source for a headline story on 16 May 2009, also using the data to highlight the worst-affected sectors – predictably perhaps, these are fashion, electrical, furniture DIY and jewellery retailers.

The application delivers constantly-updated data on 675 town centres across Great Britain, giving instant insights to planners, developers and investors into the retail mix and the health of the high street.

TCI highlights that the last two quarters have seen fast growth in the rate of shop vacancies, with particularly high levels in the north east of England and the West Midlands, as the contour map created by Geofutures for the FT illustrates.

Map of retail vacancies Q4 08-Q1 09 prepared by Geofutures for the Financial Times

Map of retail vacancies Q4 08-Q1 09 prepared by Geofutures for the Financial Times

The specific effects of the credit crunch can be seen in the nature of these vacancies: the overall closure rate has not increased significantly, but the numbers of new openings – often reliant upon bank finance – have shown a sharp reduction.

The main idea behind TCI is the ability to manage vast volumes of data seamlessly, drilling down through these kinds of numbers, comparing town centres like for like and at successively fine scales. For more information about the product, please visit The Local Data Company website.

See the news story on ft.com (registration required).

How clean is your data?

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

Geofutures’ Simon Lewis explains that the success of a major new information resource demands a thorough approach to cleaning up the underlying data

For the last six months the Geofutures development team have been working on a stimulating project in partnership with The Local Data Company (LDC). Town Centre Intelligence is a web-based application designed to provide insight and information on the economic health of town centres.

LDC collects a huge wealth of data on retail premises, obtained and updated directly by their own team through street surveys. Until now the company has had a thriving business supplying clients such as Yell with data in the form of database extracts, but they rightly identified the opportunity to create even more value from this enormous resource.

Town Centre Intelligence provides subscribers – town planners, town centre managers, retailers, property investors and master planners among others – with all the retail data on 1,300 town centres and the means to sort, search and visualise it via a user-friendly map based interface. Delivered over the web, TCI delivers context-specific information on town centre performance at successively fine scales at the click of a button.

TCI offers instant online retail data, including the independent / multiple mix, shown here for Edinburgh

TCI offers instant online retail data, including the independent / multiple mix, shown here for Edinburgh

Geofutures’ part of the game has been the development of this online data platform. In building it, some of the thornier challenges we’ve faced have involved the database structures which underpin the application. Dealing with spatial data is our stock in trade, but it’s certainly not for the fainthearted, as some of the issues set out below will illustrate.

Creating locations

TCI is based on The Local Data Company’s data, but it also incorporates town centre boundary data from the Dept for Communities and Local Govt (CLG), and floorspace information from the Valuation Office (VOA). Look at any three organisations’ data and you’ll see that there is no such thing as a universally accepted address standard in the UK, notwithstanding BS7666, PAF and Address Point. None are wrong, they are just all slightly different, and this is the issue we addressed (no pun intended) with bringing these three sources together.

The key thing they have in common is that they refer to a place on the ground (with a few exceptions for things like house boats).  Instead of trying to match between the sets, we allow a point on the ground to have multiple addresses and we match to the point. With the volumes of data involved (some 300,000 business premises records in total) we needed to build a specialised ‘data cleanser’ application to perform these matches, which also allowed us to add non-address attributes such as floorspace to these points.

You can’t provide a picture of UK town centre retailing without dealing with shopping centres, of course. In each shiny mall lurks an addressing hornets’ nest all of its own. Multi-level, multi-concession shopping centre addresses bear little relation to normal addressing, and being privately-owned estates, collecting data and taking photos is often restricted.

Beyond this, we have to deal with the granularity of different types of address. A department store and a shopping centre may both contain multiple businesses but these are treated differently in different databases: the VOA may match on one level and the Ordnance Survey on another level. TCI offers unique added-value information such as churn rates of retail premises. This calculation is deceptively complex anyway, and to achieve this within acceptable bounds of accuracy, TCI has to recognise different addressing schemas and calculate churn rates accordingly.

Creating ‘towns’

There’s lots more elsewhere on this site about the Geofutures project to define town centres for what’s now CLG (previously ODPM, DETR and DoE; it was a long project). The need for it arose because the definition of a town centre – precisely where it begins and ends – depends upon whom you ask, so no consistent and comparable boundaries could be drawn.

This was significant when the health of town centres appeared to be under threat from out-of-town retail parks, and the success of planning changes to improve this had to be evaluated against standardised boundaries. These were created by tying multiple relevant datasets to town centre locations, creating an Index of Town Centre Activity based upon economic activity, property and diversity measures, and deciding a nationally consistent threshold value which would delineate every boundary.

The boundaries are used in TCI to allow like for like comparisons between town centres (London and other major cities comprise many smaller centres, for example, and only retail data within the government boundaries are included in the application). This too requires a lengthy data matching process, using what us GISers call ‘point in poly’[gon] to link locations to towns.

Generating statistics

Town centres are vibrant, dynamic things, and to be useful to those assessing and planning them, TCI has to allow for changes over time. Towns change size, both due to physical changes in their fabric, and due to shifting town centre boundaries based on their changing index of activity (see above). As the boundary moves, a retail location may move into or out of the town centre.

The size of individual retail premises may also change due to extensions or merging / de-merging with adjacent premises. Independents and multiples are analysed and compared within TCI, including data on independents which become multiples the moment they open a second shop. All of these flexibility requirements can be met with the right data structure, but reaching this point has sometimes been an interesting journey.

In human thought processes, we move between wide helicopter views and fine-scale information all the time. For a tool to aid this process, we need it to aggregate data for us and then break them down again. The magic is in how we expand out into huge arrays of data which lend themselves to statistical modelling, and then aggregate the data back into more manageable volumes that are quick enough for downloads and interactive analysis through the web interface.

There’s more about TCI here, or please comment on this article below.

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