DCLG: Retail turnover statistics
Geofutures have been undertaking some work on behalf of the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The aim of the project is to improve the quality of retail turnover statistics for the Town Centres project.
The need to publish retail turnover statistics at the town centre level was among the main recommendations of the 1994 Environment Select Committee which evaluated the impact of planning policy on town centre development.
This Select Committee recommendation was one of the key reasons that the Department embarked on the project to collate a range of statistics on town centres.
In 2003, when the first set of consistent boundaries for town centres in England and Wales were published, it was quickly recognised that the quality of the turnover statistics was suspect. In some locations the lack of accuracy led to the project’s Steering Group recommending that no turnover figures be published until their quality had been improved. This is unfortunate, since these are the statistics most in demand in both central and local government as well as the private sector.
It appears the main reason for the lack of accuracy in the turnover statistics lies in the methodology that the Government currently employ to derive local branch estimates for multiple branch organisations.
Geofutures have created two prototype models for two major High Street retailers in order to estimate their turnover values on a store by store basis. Using data from the town centres project, and other data Geofutures have collated we have been able to produce estimates for these turnover statistics using geographically weighted regression. The estimation technique has the potential to improve upon the method currently employed.
