A property value jubilee

The Jubilee Line Extension (shown by the dotted grey line)

The extension to London Underground’s Jubilee Line is the largest addition to the network in more than 25 years, and its contribution to improving access to the Docklands area is clearly significant. Geofutures has worked on two separate initiatives to understand and quantify this contribution, with the benefit of its pedigree in property analysis.

Most recently Geofutures joined chartered surveyors Atisreal in a project for Transport for London to quantify the relationship between the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) and property values. The study focused on the areas around two selected new stations, Southwark and Canary Wharf, for the 3 year period following the JLE’s opening in December 1999.

The study area highlighting Southwark and Canary Wharf

GIS technology and leading-edge modelling techniques were used to process residential, office and retail property value data made available for the first time by the Valuation Office Agency. In parallel, the key external influences on property values (of which the JLE’s improved accessibility was one) were mapped and weighted, a process known as hedonic modelling.

An animation of the Geofutures Residential Valuation model through time, the areas with higher values are the reds and whites, while the lower values are the greens and browns

Together, the outputs allowed the JLE’s own contribution to be isolated, and multiplied by the normalised property values across each sector. The results point to an overall property value windfall arising directly from the JLE which compares reasonably to its cost of construction.

Southwark tube station	Canary Wharf tube station
The varied effect of the JLE on property prices in Southwark (red being a positive effect, blue less so)	The varied effect of the JLE on property prices in Canary Wharf (red being a positive effect, blue less so)

This work followed an earlier study carried out by Geofutures for RICS looking at the Croydon Tramlink.

This report is available to download as a PDF here, following the TfL press release dated 7th June 2005.